ASML Q1'26 Conference Call Notes
Three things from ASML's call, starting with: The capacity story everyone's missing: non-EUV is quietly accelerating
The capacity story everyone’s missing: non-EUV is quietly accelerating: After guiding flat non-EUV in Q4, they just upgraded to growth - immersion recovering from ‘slow start,’ dry business ‘doing quite nicely.’ This is billions in incremental revenue nobody’s modeling.
EUV capacity ramp is real and contracted - 60 to 80+ units locked in: Not just guidance theater. 60 Low NA systems in 2026 (vs 44 in 2025), ramping to ‘at least 80’ in 2027. That’s 36% YoY growth with customers ‘strongly invited to create more capacity’ due to supply constraints.
High NA timeline just got vaguer while everyone’s distracted by the capacity story: Q4: customers ‘starting to test High NA on real products.’ Q1: customers ‘continue to see better availability data.’ That’s a regression from production testing to availability metrics.
Disclosure Quality: A- | Financial Quality: A
The sleeper story is non-EUV quietly flipping from flat to growth - that’s potentially billions in incremental revenue nobody’s modeling while everyone obsesses over EUV capacity. Yes, the 60-to-80+ EUV unit ramp is real and impressive, but the binding constraint isn’t ASML’s capacity anymore, it’s customer fab readiness and energy availability for AI infrastructure. Fouquet’s most revealing quote: ‘Memory customers are sold out for 2026 and supply constraint will last beyond 2026’ - this isn’t just demand, it’s rationing. My view changes if High NA customer progress stalls further or if the non-EUV recovery fails to materialize in Q2 unit shipments.
Full breakdown below, including the Delta Sheet, Narrative Regressions, Binders vs Narrative, Promise Ledger, Financial Quality Indicators, and questions for next quarter.
